December 13, 2009

From Toronto to Copenhagen: A Precautionary Tale

Filed under: climate — Tags: , , , — Ralph Torrie @ 7:03 pm

Wind turbines in Copenhagen

Wind turbines in Copenhagen

Copenhagen, December 13, 2009 – I am writing this early Sunday morning as my flight arches across the North Sea and begins a slow descent over the Danish Archipelago.  It is clear day and the sun is catching the graceful rotations of hundreds if not thousands of windmills that dot the Danish countryside.  I am headed to Copenhagen to attend the climate meetings there this week, and as the plane begins its final approach I am thinking about how my journey from Toronto to Copenhagen really began over twenty years ago.

Climate change first burst on the international agenda in the sweltering summer of 1988.  Throughout the 1980’s there had been a growing sense of concern among climatologists (scientists who study the physical and chemical processes in that thin layer of life-giving gas that surrounds our planet) that human activities were altering the atmosphere in potentially dangerous ways.  In June of 1988 Canada hosted the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere which brought together climate scientists, energy experts, policy makers and others from around the world to address the problem.  I had been working on energy and environment issues for over ten years by then, and the Canadian government asked me if I would organize the energy workshop for the Toronto conference.

Already by 1988 the case for human-induced climate change was strong.  The greenhouse effect itself had been understood since the 19th century and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere was clearly on the rise.  Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion were double the level that the ecosphere could absorb, and the surplus was accumulating in the atmosphere.  This in turn was enhancing the natural greenhouse effect, and the result would be an increase in the average global temperature.  The theory was sound and well established, but in 1988 the signal – the actual increase in global average temperature – was difficult to detect amidst the natural temperature variations.

If the consequence of climate disruption were not so serious, a “wait and see” attitude might have been justified in 1988, but therein lies one of the central dilemmas of this issue.  Increases in greenhouses gases today continue to affect climate for decades and even centuries into the future.  Every day we continue to emit greenhouse gas emissions at current rates or higher, we lock into place the long term consequences of those emissions.  And the consequences of upsetting the global climate system go far beyond simple warming.  It’s not unlike the fever we get when suffering from the ‘flu; the average global temperature increase is a symptom of deeper problems.  By the time the global atmosphere is running a fever of even one or two degrees Celsius, it represents a significant destabilization of the planetary climate system and anything that is connected to it.  And everything is connected to it, including us.

This is where the “precautionary principle” comes into the picture. Read more…

October 8, 2009

An Eventful Week for Climate Change in the U.S.

Filed under: climate — Tags: , , , , , — Ralph Torrie @ 11:23 am

This has been a busy week for climate change activity in the U.S.  Here are three stories that struck me as particularly interesting:

Debate Commences on Senate Climate Legislation. The Kerry Boxer bill enters the ring, weighing in at over 800 pages (much of taken from the earlier Waxman Markey bill that passed the House in June), this is the bill that will define America’s response to climate change.  Climate policy advocates swarmed the bill as soon as it was released and positions and alliances were already starting to form this week.  The emission reduction target has been increased from 17% to 20% below 2005 levels by 2020, the provision for the use of international offsets has been cut back, and a ceiling on carbon price has been proposed.  Interestingly, there appears to be relatively strong support in the business community for this bill, but there will be a difficult path to passage.  The world community convenes in Copenhagen in December to address the increasingly worrisome warnings that dangerous climate change is closer than had been hoped.  Virtually nobody expects the bill to pass before the Copenhagen meeting, but the tenor of the US debate between now and then will go a long way to determining the outcome.  Watch for more on this story, much more, in the weeks ahead.

Coming to a Post Office Near You! Perhaps realizing that in the absence of a climate law the administration will have to demonstrate its commitment to greenhouse gas reduction in other ways, President Obama issued an Executive Order this week calling for a 20% reduction in GHG emissions from government operations, and federal agencies have just 90 days to show how they will do it.  This is a sleeper.  The federal government owns 500,000 buildings and is a significant purchaser of just about everything that uses energy.  If the government delivers on these targets it will cause a significant shot in the arm to the US efficiency, renewable energy and recycling industries, and it will have wide ranging repercussions for supply chains everywhere.

PG&E Quits U.S. Chamber of Commerce in protest over its position on climate change. The PG&E blog entry announcing the move, entitled “Irreconcilable Differences”, makes for interesting reading.  This is a sign of the times if there ever was one.  Those of you who were around in the early days of the climate change policy debate will remember how rare it was to find any business support for action on global warming.  That has changed in the last few years as the inevitability of an energy transformation has become apparent, and as astute members of the business community begin to appreciate the upside to climate change policy.  American business is waking up to the enormity of the clean energy opportunity, and not a moment too soon.